Deal or no deal - Player's guide

Top boxes left

If you have three large amounts left in eight boxes, and five small amounts, then you know the chances of winning a large amount of money is 3 in 8.

But what if you want to know how likely you are to lose two of the large amounts in the next round?

Click the link below to view a chart of how likely you are to lose any number of boxes in one round...

Top boxes left

This chart shows you how likely you are to keep or lose one of the top boxes left in play. This is an essential piece of info, similar to knowing how likely you are in poker to improve on the next card.

The first row in the image lets you decide on how many boxes you consider high values, and the second column tells you how many boxes you can lose in one round. The lower your expectations, the more likely you will be in achieving success.

If you consider the boxes with 35,000 or above to be what you want, then you start the game from the top 5 boxes column, and as you lose an amount, say 50,000, you then look at the top 4 column, and move down the rows as the rounds progress.

So, for example, you want to find out how likely you are to lose two of the top three boxes in the 8 to 5 round, the chart shows it to be 27%, about a quarter of the time.

Remember, the median at the start of the game is only 875, so you have to have an above average game to win the higher amounts in play!

You can download the original spreadsheet below, made in OpenOffice. If you print the image or sheet, remember to print it in landscape so that it fits on the page!